Market research · county & MSA data

Spartanburg County's growth — and what it means for healthcare demand

Spartanburg County is one of the fastest-growing counties in South Carolina. This page assembles the primary-source numbers — population, healthcare employment, provider supply, and nearby development — and is explicit about the step most growth pages skip: population growth is not, by itself, proof that any specific healthcare business or building will succeed.

Population: the verified series

Our calculations from that series (formulas shown): growth vs the 2020 base = (380,857 − 328,000) ÷ 328,000 = +16.1%; compound annual growth July 2020→July 2025 = (380,857 ÷ 329,370)^1/5 − 1 = +2.95%/yr. Census reporting also places Spartanburg among the fastest-growing metropolitan areas in the country in recent vintages. Residents aged 65+ are 17.5% of the county (Census QuickFacts, V2025) — roughly 66,650 people, the age band with the highest healthcare utilization.

Longer-horizon projections reported in South Carolina media anticipate the county adding on the order of +179,000 residents by 2042 (+49%). We cite that as journalism, not as a verified projection — the state Revenue & Fiscal Affairs projection series predates the 2022–2025 surge, and we will replace this with the primary dataset when re-verified.

Healthcare employment: a decade of growth

Education & Health Services employment in the Spartanburg MSA rose from 14.1k (Dec 2015) to 17.5k (July 2026, preliminary) — about +24% (BLS series SMU45439006500000001). The sector grew straight through the pandemic decade; this is capacity being added in response to demand, and it is the labor pool any healthcare operator here would hire from.

The supply side: providers are scarce relative to the state

What is actually being built nearby

Verified development near the Dillon/Skylyn corridor (status as of 2026-08-23 — we distinguish approved from built):

• Drayton Townhomes — ~$22.4M, ~90–110 rental townhomes at Skylyn Dr/Drayton Rd/Carney St, ~0.5–0.8 mi north of the subject. City development agreement approved 6-0 on May 27, 2025; county planning items followed in August 2025. Construction start not independently confirmed.
• Drayton Mills Lofts & Marketplace — completed mill redevelopment (~289 units + retail) ~1 mile north; part of the ongoing Drayton Mills Village master plan.
• Beaumont Mill apartments — ~$70M, 275 units approved August 2025 (city's north side).
• Hillcrest Market Place — completed ~$9.8M reconfiguration with an active second phase (E Main St retail corridor).
• Roads: the only nearby SCDOT project is a 2026 "road diet" on E Main between Converse and E St. John — downtown end; it does not change access to the subject. Local traffic: S-31 corridor 13,600 AADT, S-44 (Drayton Rd) 20,700 AADT (SCDOT 2021).

Honest negative: Spartanburg Regional's announced 2023–2026 capital projects (a $55M Union hospital, a ~$180M Fountain Inn expansion, main-campus work) are all elsewhere. We found no announced investment at the Mary Black Campus itself in that window — and also no evidence of service reduction.

What this data does not prove

Where this leads

If you are researching Spartanburg for a healthcare use, the follow-on questions are concrete: what does medical space cost here (market page), what is actually available near the hospital campuses (comparables), and do the economics of owning beat leasing (underwriter)? One currently marketed property that surfaces repeatedly in that chain is 125 Dillon Drive — a vacant former medical office adjacent to the Mary Black Campus at a below-appraisal ask — with significant caveats we document rather than hide.

Last reviewed 2026-08-23.